It is striking to see the different trajectories mobile operating systems are on when compared to the mobile web.

In 2006, two smartphone operating systems accounted for 81 percent of the market. There were really only four platforms to worry about: Symbian, Windows Mobile, RIM, and Palm OS. These represented 93 percent of the market.

Fast-forward to the present and the picture is different. No single operating system has more than 50 percent marketshare. There are seven operating systems being tracked and even within operating systems there are fragmentation concerns.

The future promises more operating system fragmentation, not less:

• In February, Nokia and Intel joined forces to create a new open source smartphone operating system called MeeGo.
• HP’s purchase of Palm means that WebOS isn’t going away any time soon.
• Windows Phone 7 will replace Windows Mobile, but not immediately. It is also unclear how Kin fits into the picture.
• Samsung will ship its own operating system called Bada later this summer. Before you discount Bada, remember that Samsung has the highest percentage of U.S. mobile subscribers, sells more touch screen phones than anyone else, and aims to sell 18 million smartphones this year.
• HTC is rumored to be considering its own operating system. HTC is the fourth largest manufacturer of smartphones.
• Motorola is rumored to have bought its own mobile operating system. Motorola co-CEO Sanjay Jha said during Q1’s earnings call, “I continue to believe that at some point … that owning our own OS will be a very important thing.”

This list doesn’t include differences within each particular operating system. Much has been made of Android fragmentation due to different user experiences like MotoBlur and HTC’s Sense UI. And some argue that even the homogenous iPhone platform is starting to fragment.

There are more mobile operating systems coming and no signs of the mobile OS market narrowing any time soon.

The mobile web is converging

By contrast, the mobile web is converging on HTML5 and WebKit.

Unlike mobile operating systems, mobile browsers were fragmented a few years ago. The list of early mobile browsers include a series of proprietary browser engines:

• jB5 Browser
• Polaris Browser
• Blazer
• Internet Explorer Mobile
• Openwave
• NetFront
• Obigo
• Blackberry Browser

That’s a fraction of the browser options that were available to mobile phone users. And while there is still work to be done to make mobile browsers more consistent, it is nothing compared to the inconsistencies between early mobile browsers.

Today, every mobile browser is moving toward HTML5 support, if it isn’t there already:

WebKit: The dominant mobile platform

The WebKit browser engine now has a dominant position in mobile browsers. When BlackBerry ships its new browser based on WebKit, 85 percent of smartphones will ship with a WebKit-based browser.

WebKit is also used by numerous feature phones. Vision Mobile estimates that at the end of 2009, WebKit had been embedded in more than 250 million devices.

Advancing the mobile browser

In many ways, HTML5 is just the baseline of where mobile browsers are headed. Many companies, from carriers to handset manufacturers, are looking to mobile browser innovation as a key to their mobile strategies.

• WebOS extends Javascript to provide access to device characteristics like the address book, camera, and accelerometer.
• Sony Ericsson worked with the PhoneGap community to create its WebSDK.
• Symbian is wooing developers with access to the dialer, calendar, camera, contacts and other tools using web technology.
• Forty carriers and handset manufacturers have formed the Wholesale Application Community to build an open platform that will work on all devices. They seek to combine JIL and BONDI. JIL and BONDI provide access to device APIs via web technology.

There are two common threads in each of these stories.

First, companies throughout the ecosystem are extending mobile browsers to provide more functionality and attract developers to their platforms. Second, they are all approaching it in similar ways built on HTML widget technology.

Much like WebKit, there will be inconsistencies between these efforts in the near term, but all of these efforts are headed in the same direction.

Two to many, many to one

In 2006, two mobile operating systems controlled 81 percent of the market. This year there are 10 different smartphone operating systems.

Over that same period of time, mobile browsers have gone from many different proprietary rendering engines to the point where WebKit alone will power browsers in more than 85 percent of the smartphones sold.

From two operating systems to many. From many browsers to one. We have two core mobile technologies headed in opposite directions.

As we’re all well aware, Google released the Nexus One yesterday, the first supposed “Google Phone.” But it’s hardly an iPhone killer. For that role, Google has something much more sinister in mind. Meet the “Fuck You iPhone” Phone.

Citysourced is an iphone application that empowers citizens to identify civil issues (potholes, graffiti, trash, snow removal, etc.) and report them to city hall for quick resolution – they are calling it a “mobile civic engagement tool”.

Here’s how it works. You know that pothole your car keeps falling into as you try and pull into your driveway? CitySourced can help with that. Pull out your iPhone, snap a pic, select the report type and hit send. CitySourced will geo-tag your picture and send a PDF report to the city council member that handles that district.

Here are all the items that you can tag and report:

• abandoned bicycle or vehicle
• animal services – biting, deceased, not leashed, not permitted, pest control
• driveway cleaning, danger, degradation, obstruction
• graffiti removal
• homeless encampment, nuisance
• illegal dumping/trash, fire/burning
• leaf collection
• parking illegally, illegally in driveway, in red zone, without permit
• parking meter broken, parking sign
• plants/trees danger, degradation, obstruction, overgrown, removal
• roadway cleaning, danger, degradation, obstruction
• sidewalk cleaning, danger, degradation, obstruction
• street light, sign
• trash can/bin broken, removal
• water leak driveway, fire hydrant, sidewalk, street, unknown
• yard waste removal
• other including building code enforcement, noise complaint, property violation, any not listed

Currently there are over 1900 cities in the database and users have the ability to add a city from the CitySourced website. The app is free to download and according to Kurt Daradics, Co-Founder of CitySourced, the way they plan to make money is off of the individual cities.

I think this is a great example of how private companies can leverage technology to improve the bureaucratic inefficiencies of local government while still generating revenue.

A colleague and I got into a heated debate last spring after hearing about the specs for the, at that time, upcoming iPhone 3GS.  He exclaimed that the launch of this new phone would leave competitors so far behind in respect to technology that Apple would be catapulted into a market leader position.

I explained to him that this is a ridiculously myopic view of the market.  Not only did/does Apple hold a tiny fraction of total market share but Android was about to make a splash.

He took to ridiculing the G1 and my thoughts about the issue in front of our colleagues… ‘the Google phone is for engineers and tech nerds and will never get the following that iPhone has’.  I told him that within 12-24 months Android would have a greater share of the market than Apple.  The ridicule continued.

He didn’t see the big picture.  The Android strategy wasn’t about making an ‘iPhone killer’.  It was about rapidly getting real estate on a lot of phones by giving away a solid platform and letting hardware manufacturers do  what they do best – design hardware.  And what does Google get out of all that? More mobile searches, which could be one of its biggest sources of growth in the coming years.

During Google’s third quarter earnings conference call today, one message came out loud and clear: Google’s mobile strategy is starting to pay off. “Android adoption is about to explode,” declared CEO Eric Schmidt, explaining that all the “necessary conditions” are set for growth: There are now 12 Android phones out there (most recently the Motorola Cliq) across 32 carriers in 26 countries.

It remains to be seen, but I think I was right.